SGE-ASSA PROGRAM: JANUARY 3-5, 2004, SAN DIEGO, CA 

Saturday, January 3, 2004

Empirical Studies in Macroeconomic Issues

8:00a.m.   Grand Hyatt – Edward D room

Chair: Charles Hulten

Mark Doms and Norman Morin, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco – Consumer Sentiment and Consumption

Jean Kimmel, Western Michigan University, and Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, San Diego State University – Moonlighting Behavior over the Business Cycle

Mark Lasky, U.S. Congressional Budget Office – A Putty-Clay Model of Investment

Stephen R. Bond, Oxford University and Jason G. Cummins, Federal Reserve Board -- Uncertainty and Company Investment: An Empirical Investigation using Data on Analysts' Profits Forecasts

Discussants:        Martha Starr, American University, Charles Hulten,University of Maryland

Gross Job Flows

10:15 a.m.   Grand Hyatt – Edward D room

Chair: John Haltiwanger

Jason Faberman, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics --- Job Flows and Establishment Characteristics: Variations across U.S. Metropolitan Areas

Lucia Foster, U.S. Census Bureau --- Creative Destruction in the Appalachian Region

Julie Hotchkiss, M. Melinda Pitts, and John C. Robertson, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta --- Employment Dynamics in Georgia: What do State Administrative Data have to Say?

James Spletzer, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics --- Job Creation and Job Destruction During the Recent Business Cycle

Discussants:            Randy Becker, U.S. Census Bureau, John Haltiwanger, University of Maryland, Joshua Pinkston, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Scott Schuh, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Adjusting for Geographic Cost-of Living Differences in Federal Statistics

2:30  p.m.   Grand Hyatt – Edward D room

Chair: Kathleen Short

Charles Nelson and Kathleen Short, U.S. Census Bureau --- The Effect of Geographic Adjustment on Poverty Estimates

Dean Jolliffe, Economic Research Service, USDA  --- How Robust are the Metro-Nonmetro Poverty Differences? An Analysis of Distribution-Sensitive Poverty Measures and Spatial Price Adjustments. 

Mary Kokoski, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Patrick Cardiff, Bureau of Economic  Analysis --- Constructing Interarea Price Indices from CPI Data 

Mark D. Shroder, Department of Housing and Urban Development --- Voucher Administrative Data as Indicators of Cost of Living Differences

Discussants:     Kathleen Scholl, U.S. General Accounting Office, Bettina Aten, Bridgewater

Sunday, January 4, 2004

Small Business Startups and Special Characters

8:00  a.m.   Grand Hyatt – Edward D room

Chair: Robert Fairlie

Candida Brush, Boston College, Nancy Carter, St. Thomas University, Elizabeth Gatewood, Indiana University, Patricia Greene, University of Missouri, and Myra Hart, Harvard University --- Women, Money & Wealth Creation:  Investigating the Myths

Jonathan T. Eckhardt, University of Wisconsin, Scott A. Shane, University of Maryland --- Industry Correlates of High Growth Startups

Robert W. Fairlie, University of California—Santa Cruz, and Alicia Robb, Foundation for Sustainable Development --- Families, Human Capital, and Small Business: Evidence from the Characteristics of Business Owners Survey

Discussants:            Ying Lowrey, U.S. Small Business Administration, Bruce D. Phillips, NFIB Research Foundation, Harvey Bronstein, Small Business Administration

Empirical Studies of Banking Issues

10:15  a.m.   Grand Hyatt – Edward D room

Chair: Richard  Fry

Timothy Hannan, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve – The Impact of Credit Unions on the Rates Offered for Retail Deposits by Banks and Thrift Institutions

Cynthia Bansak and Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, San Diego State University – Access to Banking Services and Remittances by Mexican Migrants

Allen Berger, Federal Reserve Board of Governors and Gregory Udell, Indiana University -- The Institutional Memory Hypothesis and the Procyclicality of Bank Lending Behavior

Discussants:        Philip E. Strahan, Boston College, Richard Fry, Pew Hispanic Center, Robert Feinberg, American University

The Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government

2:30p.m. Grand Hyatt – Manchester B  room

Chair: Warren Hrung, U.S. Department of the Treasury

Roger W. Ferguson, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve ---

Monday, January 5, 2004

Taxes and Economic Behavior

8:00  a.m.   Grand Hyatt – Edward D room

Chair: Leonard Burman

John R. Eiler and Warren B. Hrung, U.S. Treasury, and Michelle J. White, UC-San Diego --- Personal Bankruptcy, Tax Progressivity, and Entrepreneurial Entry

Laura Clauser, US Treasury --- Revisiting the debate between arm’s length and formula apportionment

Gerald Auten and David Joulfaian, US Treasury --- Taxes and Capital Gains Realizations: Evidence from a Long Panel

Discussants:             Julie Berry Cullen, University of Michigan, Simon Anderson, University of Virginia, Leonard Burman, Urban Institute

Understanding Investment Incentives Using Real Option Techniques

10:15  a.m.   Grand Hyatt – Edward D room

Chair: Robert L. McDonald

Svetlana Boyarchenko, University of Texas at Austin --- Irreversible Decisions and Record Setting News Principles

Andrew B. Abel, University of Pennsylvania, and Janice C. Eberly, Northwestern University --- Q for the Long-Run

Jason C. Hsu and Eduardo S. Schwartz, University of California at Los Angeles --- A Model of R&D Valuation and the Design of Research Incentives

Tarun Sabarwal, University of Texas at Austin --- The Non-Neutrality of Debt in Investment Timing: A New NPV Rule

Discussants:  Toni Whited, University of Wisconsin at Madison, Jean-Daniel Saphores, University of California at Irvine

Exchange Rate Regimes

1:00  p.m.   Grand Hyatt – Edward D room

Chair: Martin Uribe

Fabio M. Natalucci, Federal Reserve Board, and Federico Ravenna, University of California – Santa Cruz --- The Road to Adopting the Euro: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Regimes in EU Candidate Countries

Shaghil Ahmed, Christopher J. Gust, Steven B. Kamin, and Jonathan Huntley, Federal Reserve Board --- Are Depreciations as Contractionary as Devaluations: a Comparison of Selected Emerging and Industrial Economies

Michele Cavallo, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Kate Kisselev, Citigroup, Fabrizio Perri and Nouriel Roubini, New York University --- Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Cost of Floating

Discussants:            Fabio Ghironi, Boston College, Eswar Prasad, International Monetary Fund, Martin Uribe, University of Pennsylvania